the hands of poker dave bogle

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© dw bogle 2001

 
maths & science odds of brag medical puzzles myths
 
the number of possible hands
There are 52 cards in a pack, and 5 cards in a hand, so the answer is any 5 from 52 - or 52C5 in shorthand. The total comes to 2,598,960.
Any from Permutations = 
 
straight flush [ includes royal flush ]

All same suit
All consecutive
As in Brag, Aces can be counted either high or low when creating straights, which gives 10 straight flushes for every suit ( A-2-3-4-5 to 10-J-Q-K-A ). So the total is 40.
 
four of a kind
With 13 denominations, there are 13 possible fours. These, however, can be combined with any of the remaining 48 cards to complete the hand, so there are 13 × 48 = 624 ways to get four of a kind.
Four of same rank
 
full house

3 of one rank
Two of another
There are 13 possible threes, each of which can come in 4C3 = 4 combinations of suits. There remain 12 denominations to make up the pair, each of which can come in 4C2 = 6 permutations of suits. The formula is thus:

Threes   Pairs   No. of Hands
13 × 4 × 12 × 6 = 3,744
 
flush
In each of the suits, we can get 13C5 = 1287 flushes.  So total flushes = (1287 × 4) = 5,148. Subtracting the 40 straight flushes leaves a total of 5,108.
All same suit
 
straight

All consecutive
As Aces can be counted either high or low when creating straights, there are 10 possible ranks of straights (A-2-3-4-5 to 10-J-Q-K-A). But each of the five cards can be any one of 4 suits, so there are in fact 10 × 4 × 4 × 4 × 4 × 4 = 10240 straights.  Subtract from that the 40 straight flushes, and the final total is 10,200.
 
three of a kind

3 of one rank
With 13 denominations and 4C3 = 4 permutations of suits, there are 13 × 4 = 52 threes. But for every possible three, there are many different combinations of the other two cards needed to make up the full hand of five cards. Only 12 denominations can be taken into account ( the 13th would produce a four-of-a-kind ) and the denominations must be different ( or a Full House would result ). Each of these cards can come in any of 4 suits, so the full calculation is:
Threes   Other two
denominations
  Allow 4 suits:
cards 4 & 5
  Hands
13 × 4 × 66 × 4 × 4 = 54,912
 
two pairs
There are 78 permutations of 2 denominations - calculated from 13C2 - so that is the number of different "pairs of pairs" you can get. But each pair can come in 6 different combinations of suits, so the true number for the two pairs in this hand is 78 × 6 × 6. These in turn can be combined with any one of the 44 remaining cards of different denominations :
Two pairs
Perm 2
denominations
  6 suit combs.
for each pair
  5th card    Hands
13C2 = 78 × 6 × 6 × 44 = 123,552
 
one pair

One Pair
There are 78 ways to get the pair. The other 3 cards in the hand must all be of different denominations (both from the pair and from each other) but can be of any suit. So the three other cards can be made up of 12C3 = 220 permutations. But since any of these three cards can come from any of the 4 suits,  the "other three" can be made up of (220 × 4 × 4 × 4) combinations of cards :
One Pair   3 different
denominations
  Last 3 cards:
Allow 4 suits
   Hands
78 × 220 × 4 × 4 × 4 = 1,098,240
 
ace high etc

Highest Card
The three elements of the Ace high permutation are:
  1. The number of Aces ( 4 )
  2. The perms of denominations ( ranks ) for the other four cards
  3. The perms of suits for the other four cards
Multiply a, b, and c - and ignore any permutations which would produce straights or flushes - and that is the answer. This is it step by step, for the moment considering only the hands that have the Ace of Clubs high.

Permutations of Ranks
The cards must all have different denominations, and must be drawn from the twelve ranks 2 to 13 ( = King ). So there are 12C4 = 495 perms. Deduct from that the two combinations which along with the Ace would produce straights ( i.e. 2-3-4-5 and 10-J-Q-K ), and we are left with 493 perms of ranks.

Permutations of Suits
There are four cards to perm, and 4 suits, so the full perm is 4 × 4 × 4 × 4 = 256 combinations of suits. One of these, however, will produce a flush (Club-Club-Club-Club in this example, where the high card is the Ace of Clubs);  that one can be discounted, leaving the true number of perms of suits as 255.

Number of Aces High
From the above calculations, it follows that the number of hands with an Ace of Clubs High is 493 × 255 = 125,715. Multiply that by 4 to include in the total the other three aces, and the number of Aces high is calculated as 502,860.

The General Formula
A formula for Highs can be derived from the above computations. Note that in the case of Ace Highs, the number of straights is 2, but in every other case the number is 1; also that the "rank" element in the formula refers to the normal concept of cards' ranks: e.g. Twos have a rank of 2, Tens a rank of 10, Jacks a rank of 11, and Aces a rank of 14

High Card Other Four Cards
No. of Suits   Perms of Ranks   Perms of Suits
4 × ( rank - 2 )C4 - straights   255
 
summary tables
Hand Total % Blank Breakdown of Highs %
Straight Flush 40 0.0015 Ace 502,860 19.35
Four of a Kind 624 0.024 King 335,580 12.91
Full House 3,744 0.14 Queen 213,180 8.20
Flush 5,108 0.20 Jack 127,500 4.91
Straight 10,200 0.39 10 70,380 2.71
Three of a Kind 54,912 2.11 9 34,680 1.33
Two Pairs 123,552 4.75 8 14,280 0.55
One Pair 1,098,240 42.26 7 4,080 0.16
Highs 1,302,540 50.12 TOTAL 1,302,540 50.12
TOTAL 2,598,960 100.00

NOTES
  • The Median hand lies right between A-K-Q-J-7 and A-K-Q-J-6
  • Straight Flushes will appear on average every 64,974 hands:  rather less often than you see on the Westerns.
 
maths & science odds of brag medical puzzles myths